Kenya vs. Tanzania vs. Uganda: East African Jackpot Market Comparison

Market Size & Economic Impact: The Three-Tiered Landscape

East Africa's betting markets form a distinct three-tier system, with Kenya as the mature pioneer, Uganda as the rapidly scaling disruptor, and Tanzania as the carefully regulated growth market. The economic footprint of each reveals their strategic importance to national revenues and employment.

While participation rates appear similar across the three countries, the economic scale and technological maturity vary dramatically. Kenya's market, though smaller in projected stakes than Uganda's explosive growth, represents a more mature ecosystem with deeper mobile integration and established brands like SportPesa (used by 82% of Kenyan gamblers)[citation:4][citation:9]. Uganda's staggering UGX 14.1 trillion projection reflects not necessarily more gamblers, but significantly better tracking of previously informal betting through the National Central Electronic Monitoring System[citation:8].

"Now, through the National Central Electronic Monitoring System, we have more visibility of the operators and the activity in the gaming industry. In 2022/23... it was sh2.4 trillion. When we operationalised the system in 2023/24, those stakes grew to sh4.3 trillion. Now in 2024/25... it grew to sh8.3 trillion, and this financial year 2025/26, we are projecting... sh14.1 trillion."

— Bernard Winyi, Senior Manager, National Lotteries and Gaming Board Uganda[citation:8]

Regulatory Frameworks: Three Approaches to Control

The regulatory philosophy in each country reflects their unique political and social attitudes toward gambling, creating distinct operating environments for betting companies:

Sources: National legislation, regulatory body reports, industry analysis[citation:2][citation:4][citation:6]

East African governments increasingly view gambling taxation through a dual lens: revenue generation and social harm reduction. Kenya employs the region's highest taxation (20% on winnings plus 7.5% excise duty) explicitly to discourage "extremely addictive" behavior while capturing revenue[citation:7]. Tanzania's newer taxation framework (10-12%) represents a middle path, while Uganda's 15% rate accompanies the continent's most sophisticated monitoring system[citation:6][citation:7][citation:8]. Notably, all three countries now tax player winnings directly, marking a regional shift from solely taxing operator revenue[citation:7].

Technological Infrastructure: Mobile Money & Monitoring

The divergent technological paths of East Africa's betting markets reveal how infrastructure shapes market development. Kenya's early mobile money leadership created a betting boom, while Uganda's centralized monitoring is now driving unprecedented transparency and growth.

Sources: World Bank, GeoPoll surveys, national statistics, operator data[citation:3][citation:4][citation:7]

Kenya's technological advantage is evident in its mobile-first betting ecosystem, with nearly all sports betting (96.51%) occurring online or via mobile apps[citation:9]. This reflects both higher connectivity (122 mobile subscriptions per 100 people) and the dominance of M-Pesa, which processed KSh 169.1 billion in bets in the year to March 2024[citation:4][citation:7]. Uganda's approach represents a second-generation model: rather than just enabling betting via mobile money, it mandates all transactions through a centralized gateway that interfaces directly with tax authorities for real-time monitoring[citation:8]. Tanzania sits between these models, with growing mobile money adoption (45% of adults) but lower overall connectivity[citation:3].

Market Players & Consumer Behavior

The competitive landscape and betting preferences reveal how each market has evolved distinct characteristics despite shared regional trends like football dominance.

Market Leaders & Competitive Dynamics

Kenya has the most concentrated market with SportPesa dominating (82% of gamblers have an account), followed by Betin, Betika, and others among 128 licensed operators[citation:4][citation:9]. The market is mature but facing regulatory pressure from the pending 2023 bill which would impose high license fees and local ownership requirements[citation:4].

Tanzania's market is characterized by progressive regulation that has attracted foreign operators while maintaining strict controls through the Gaming Board of Tanzania[citation:2]. The market is smaller in revenue but notable for its early embrace of online gambling regulation.

Uganda presents the most dynamic competitive scene with numerous operators (Pasha Global Time, 256 bet, Betpawa Uganda, etc.) operating under unprecedented transparency due to the central monitoring system[citation:6]. The sector employs approximately 150,000 people, highlighting its economic significance beyond tax revenue[citation:8].

Consumer behavior shows intriguing cross-border patterns: while Kenya's youth lead in betting expenditure, its elderly population (55+) places bets most frequently (49 times per week on average), suggesting gambling as leisure rather than income pursuit for this demographic[citation:7]. Tanzania shows particularly high frequency with 31% of bettors wagering at least once daily[citation:3].

Future Trajectories & Cross-Border Implications

As East African betting markets evolve, several cross-border trends and competitive dynamics are emerging:

• Regulatory Arbitrage Potential: Kenya's proposed high license fees ($42K-$50K) and local ownership requirements may push operators toward Tanzania's more accessible or Uganda's transparent markets[citation:4]
• Technology Transfer: Uganda's successful central monitoring system may inspire similar implementations in Kenya and Tanzania to improve tax compliance and market oversight[citation:6][citation:8]
• Market Saturation vs. Growth: Kenya's mature market faces regulatory headwinds while Uganda experiences explosive growth and Tanzania follows steady, regulated expansion[citation:3][citation:4][citation:8]
• Regional Brand Expansion: Successful operators in one market increasingly eye neighboring countries, though must navigate distinct regulatory regimes[citation:2][citation:4][citation:6]
• Harmonization Pressures: Similar taxation approaches (winning taxes) suggest policy learning across borders, potentially leading to more coordinated EAC gambling regulations[citation:7]

The most significant development is Uganda's demonstration that technological oversight can dramatically increase market visibility and tax compliance. From UGX 2.4 trillion in declared stakes before the monitoring system to UGX 14.1 trillion projected after implementation, Uganda's experience suggests Kenya and Tanzania's markets may be substantially larger than currently measured[citation:8]. This revelation could prompt regional re-evaluation of gambling's economic footprint and regulatory approaches.

Looking ahead, East Africa's betting markets will likely continue diverging in scale but converging in regulatory sophistication, with Uganda's monitoring model potentially setting a new regional standard for transparency in an industry traditionally characterized by opacity.